Is the Bitcoin Cycle Over and Has the Altcoin Season Begun?
Understanding the Crypto Market Cycles
The cryptocurrency market moves in cycles. Bitcoin usually leads the way, attracting the majority of institutional and retail money. After Bitcoin peaks or consolidates, investors often shift capital into alternative cryptocurrencies, triggering what is commonly called Altcoin Season. But is this phase already starting in 2025?
Bitcoin Dominance: A Key Indicator
One of the main indicators is the Bitcoin Dominance Index. Historically, when Bitcoin’s market share declines after a strong rally, altcoins begin to outperform. In 2017 and 2021, this marked the start of powerful altcoin bull runs.
Currently, Bitcoin dominance has begun to fall, a sign that capital might be rotating.
Ethereum Leading the Way
Ethereum is often the first altcoin to capture attention after Bitcoin slows down. Institutional inflows, staking opportunities, and the potential of ETH ETFs are boosting demand.
Whenever Ethereum gains momentum, it usually opens the door for other altcoins to follow—and this dynamic seems to be happening again.
The Altcoin Season Index
The Altcoin Season Index is a widely tracked metric. It signals an official altcoin season when 75% of the top 50 altcoins outperform Bitcoin over 90 days.
At the moment, the index is still below this threshold, hovering around 40–50. This means altcoin season has not officially begun yet, but conditions are forming.
Market Sentiment and Capital Rotation
Recent on-chain data shows that some long-term Bitcoin holders are reallocating into Ethereum and mid-cap altcoins. Analysts describe 2025 as potentially the strongest altcoin season yet, though the exact timing is uncertain.
This suggests we are in a transitional phase, where liquidity is starting to diversify.
Macro and Regulatory Factors
It’s important to remember that macroeconomics also influence crypto cycles. Interest rates, liquidity conditions, and regulatory clarity can accelerate or delay altcoin performance. If Bitcoin consolidates too strongly or global risks emerge, altcoin rallies could stall.
Conclusion: Transition, Not Full Rotation
So, has the Bitcoin cycle ended? The evidence suggests Bitcoin’s leading phase may be slowing down, but a full altcoin season is not yet confirmed.
The signs—falling BTC dominance, ETH strength, and capital rotation—are promising. However, history shows that altcoins truly explode only after Bitcoin stabilizes.
For now, investors may consider balancing portfolios between Bitcoin, Ethereum, and carefully selected altcoins, preparing for what could soon become one of the most powerful altcoin seasons in crypto history.
